Episode 50 - Looking into the Near Future

Recorded: 29 April 2016
Released: 30 April 2016
Duration: 109 minutes, 48 seconds

download the .mp3 audio file

Host Paul Carr welcomes panelists Sam Lichtenstein, Adam Smith, Patrick Festa, and Mike Bohler to

Phillip Tetlock of the Good Judgment Project

talk about the human relationship with the near future: predictions, forecasts, prediction markets, and super forecasting. What do we get wrong, and what can we hope to get right? Our panelists offer their own forecasts.

What is YOUR prediction?

Links

Philip Tetlock on Rationally Speaking
Tetlock's Book Superforecasting
PredictionBook.com - log your forecasts
GJOpen.com - The Open Good Judgment Project
The Hypermind Prediction Market
PredictIt Prediction Market
Alpha Cast
SportsCast

Robin Hanson's idea of Futarchy

Forecasts

Sam Lichtenstein: SpaceX to Mars

The Red Supergiant Betelgeuse (alpha Orionis)

Paul Carr: SETI Detection
Adam Smith: UK Police with Face Recognition
Patrick Festa: Betelgeuse exploding by 2046
Mike Bohler: SpaceX on Mars before 2021

Credits:

Host and Producer: Paul Carr
Panelists: Sam Lichtenstein, Adam Smith, Patrick Festa, Mike Bohler
Music: DJ Spooky
Hardware: Shure, Pro Art, Focusrite, Apple
Software: Reaper
Postproduction: Auphonic.com
Hosting: Libsyn
Betelgeuse: Aladin Sky Atlas

The Unseen Podcast is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike license.